2016 is the year of some important the assembly elections of India. Along with Assam and Kerala, West Bengal (WB) the assembly election is a very important issue in Indian political context. But the assembly election of West Bengal (WB) 2016 is a unique dimension of an international issue. Generally a state the assembly elections in India happen and reacts only basis of state issues. But in contemporary time WB the assembly election somehow became an issue related to Tista Treaty. Not directly, but not completely hypothetically too. We know. in the federal structure of India the state dissection is very important in a specific international issue, where the state’s interest is involved.
Before going into the analysis of geopolitical issue related to the WB the assembly election for purely an analytical purpose let’s look at the political tradition of WB. After the 1977 the assembly election Left Front government came into the power. End of a long 35 year of the regime the Trinomool Congress (TMC) came into the power in 2011. TMC governed its 5 year duration in WB. In this time from 1971 to 2016 numbers of noteworthy treaties signed between India and Bangladesh.
The Ganges water sharing treaty, Three Bigha corridor exchange, Conclave exchange treaty, Railways and Bus service and many were closely related to the Indian state of WB.
WB government always played a crucial and positive role in bilateral relation between India and Bangladesh. Former WB Chief Minister Mr. Joyti Basu took a strong stand on the issue of Ganges water sharing treaty and Three Bigha corridor exchange. Before that, in 1971 left parties took a supportive role with the refuge and displaced people of Bangladesh came into West Bengal.
From the very beginning Indian National Congress (INC) took a strong and positive role to Bangladesh. Till the time of Mukti Judho to 2014, when ex PM Dr. Monmohon Singh went to Dhaka and tried to make a sensitive solve of Tista water sharing issue. After Dr. Monmohon Sing the PM of India Narendra Modi has taken the baton and gave a great shape to the bilateral relationship. PM Narendra Modi signed some very important treaties, including Conclave exchange.
But Tista issue is still pending. The diplomats of the both countries commented every time with a positive bias on that specific issue. Only WB CM Mamta Banerjee raised a point of objection in 2014. When Mr. Monmohon Singh went to Bangladesh Mamta Banerjee refused to visit in the last moment. She said, the interest of the WB should consider first before entering any treaty regarding Tista.
The new angle added in Tista Treaty, the “Interest of WB”. For a neutral attempt to analysis the situation, we should look at the history. History only can give an idea of the future phenomenon. History says traditionally Left parties an INC is in the favor of Tista Treaty. BJP also puts a green signal for the agreement. Only TMC had opposed the agreement in 2014. Mamata Banerjee raised the interest of the WB, specially for the Northern part of the Bengal.
Now we need to look about the basis of the concern of the “interest of WB” it is true that in the summer the WB part of the Tista River became almost dry. But in other seasons, it remains lively, particularly at the time of rain. The simple solution can be found out with the consideration of the water gravity of season to season. At that time left parties urged to table the Kalyan Rudra Committee report, but the WB government did not respond.
Till date Kalyan Rudra Committee report is not tabled. River expert Kalyan Rudra made a report on the ground reality of the water sharing of Tista and other Rivers. Left and BJP also asked to review the almost 52 rivers which are running both in India and Bangladesh. Now look at the political compulsion of TMC in North Bengal.
Traditionally left parties have a good vote bank in the hilly area of WB and INC has supporters in plan part of the Northern part of the WB. 2011 onwards TMC gains some amount of foot step in that place. But it is not significant right now. Politics of Hill are volatile from the very beginning. It can be assumed that the stand against Tista Treaty in 2014 not only for the vote bank.
TMC opposed the Tista Treaty, but till date has not given any other solution or proposal to make the treaty effective. But surprisingly, some political analyst is much hopeful that in the second phase of TMC government will execute or take a positive stand for the Tista Treaty.
There is another question which is very important for a geopolitical analyst that, what will change in the second phase of the TMC led WB government? In which they would raise their hand In support of Tista Treaty?
For an attempt to analytically the situation neutrally, we should look at the history. History only can give an idea of the future phenomenon. In 2014, Mamata Banerjee denied to visit Bangladesh with Dr. Monmohon Singh. She raised the question of interest of the WB, especially for the Northern part of the WB.
At that time left parties urged to table the Kalyan Rudra Committee report, but the WB government did not respond. Till date Kalyan Rudra Committee report is not tabled. River expert Kalyan Rudra made a report on the ground reality of the water sharing of Tista and other Rivers. Left and BJP also asked to review the almost 52 rivers which are running both in India and Bangladesh. Congress Government in 2014 already has taken an effort to solve this problem. Left front was also ideologically support Tista Treaty.
Traditionally Congress and Left have good vote bank in Northern part of the WB, it would be easier to make a positive environment for the agreement. There is another question which is very important for a geopolitical analyst that, what will change in the second phase of the TMC lead WB government? For which they would raise their hand In support of Tista Treaty?
In general condition there is no practical change, which will push second phase of TMC government to support Tista Treaty in same condition. Only hope is that, CM of WB shares a great relation with Bangladesh. But only great relation is not enough to wipe out the recent history on the particular matter.
In other hand If the regime change in WB still there is no confirmation that the Tista Treaty will work out with foremost efficiently. But chances are in higher side. Some time people make a common mistake. They try to analyze the only the stand of India government. If we only look at the Indian government and try to analyze the matter basis of the central government of India’s point of view, then we will fail to get the complete perception on the specific matter Accordingly, Indian constitution only central government couldn’t take this type of decision without consulting the particular state government.
Finally we can say that, Success of Tista Treaty is closely linked to the 2016 election of WB without being an issue of the vote. But at least in contemporary point of time it is impossible to assume time duration. But it is expected that Bangladesh government will put all its effort to table Tista Treaty before the general election of Bangladesh.
We hope the geopolitical relation between India and Bangladesh became more vibrant, ever before and the issue of the Tista will solve with consideration of all interest and more and more discussion is the only way to solve it.
Arindam Chatterjee & Sandip Mukeherjee
